SAG Awards: Here’s why Paul Giamatti (‘The Holdovers’) will win Best Actor

Paul Giamatti has been rising in contention in the Best Actor category for Focus Features’ “The Holdovers.” Already a Golden Globe and Critics Choice Award winner for his role as teacher Paul Hunham in the Alexander Payne Christmas dramedy, he is now nominated at the Screen Actors Guild and BAFTA Awards, and received his second career Oscar nomination (after 2005’s “Cinderella Man”) and first in a leading role. He could very well continue his winning streak, especially at SAG when it is held on February 24. Read below for why Giamatti looks very likely to triumph with his actors’ union.

Giamatti already has four SAG Awards, which include his first victory where he shared the film ensemble prize with the cast of Payne’s 2004 film “Sideways,” and his lead acting win as the title role for the 2008 HBO miniseries “John Adams,” where he swept the television awards portraying the second President of the United States. But it is his other two wins where he was not predicted to pick up the prize that gives him the edge for this year’s race.

The year after “Sideways,” Giamatti competed individually in Best Supporting Actor for the Ron Howard boxing movie “Cinderella Man” as Joe Gould, manager of boxer James J. Braddock. The 2005 category that year was spread out with different winners at every precursor and Giamatti was contending against George Clooney for “Syriana,” who won at the Golden Globes – opening his speech saying he thought Giamatti was going to win – and also had multiple bids for his other film “Good Night and Good Luck” that year as producer, writer and director. Many believed Clooney would continue to get his acting prizes with SAG as part of his impressive year, but Giamatti came out victorious that ceremony, putting him as a serious contender for the Oscar, which he eventually came up short to Clooney.

Even more shocking than that was his win for the 2011 television movie “Too Big To Fail” as Ben Bernanke, where Giamatti was only on screen for about eight minutes and did almost all of his scenes sitting down. He was also up against his co-star James Woods – who had more material particularly in the movie’s opening minutes – and had to overcome a potential vote split. In addition, the category had heavy lead contenders playing major historical figures like Greg Kinnear (“The Kennedys”) and Laurence Fishburne (“Thurgood”), as well as Guy Pearce (“Mildred Pierce”), who beat him at the Emmy Awards for Best Supporting Actor in a Limited Series or TV Movie. Giamatti’s SAG victory was considered a huge surprise and proves that his fellow actors really respect him.

This time for “The Holdovers,” Giamatti has more hardware under his belt and has been undefeated thus far at the televised awards (Golden Globes and Critics Choice), giving him more stability for SAG amongst his peers who clearly love him. Lest we forget, the guild loves rewarding actors they like and highly respect over and over again such as Alec Baldwin, William H. Macy, Viola Davis, Jessica Chastain and Jason Bateman, and Giamatti’s past and sometimes unexpected wins absolutely put him on that list.

The SAG Awards will also be the last aired kudos before the Academy Awards, which proved vital for all of last year’s winners. (The BAFTA Awards will be doled out one week earlier on February 18.) If Giamatti can pull off a win for the lovable curmudgeon in what is already an undecided race, he could very well be on his way to winning his first Oscar.

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