Abstract
Climate change modifies geographic ranges, phenology, and biological interactions—key components of species ecological niche. Alterations in distribution ranges could decrease the size of the populations and thus threaten the persistence of the species. Here, we seek to test the Eltonian Noise Hypotheses (ENH), which states that biotic interactions do not affect species distribution at large geographical scales, using Tacinga palmadora (Cactaceae), an endemic species to the Caatinga dry forest in Brazil, as the case study. We first modeled the current distribution of T. palmadora and its pollinators, the hummingbird Chlorostilbon lucidus and the stingless bee Trigona spinipes, separately using only climatic variables. Then, we modeled T. palmadora current distribution using C. lucidus and T. spinipes distributions as input layers alongside the climatic variables. Afterwards, we projected the model to the future to predict climatic conditions for the year 2070 (average for 2061–2080), using optimistic (RCP4.5) and pessimistic (RCP8.5) greenhouse gas emission scenarios. We analyzed model performance and determined habitat suitability of the species for all models. In general, biotic interactions did not increase model performance and the best-supported models were the ones considering climatic variables only. We found that T. palmadora suitable habitats are most likely to be reduced by climate change. In this sense, our results supported the ENH and showed that T. palmadora may lose a part of its climatic envelope, already restricted by its endemism, generating negative cascade effects on the region.
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This study was funded by the Long-term Ecological Research Program (PELD) Catimbau/CNPq, process number: 403770/2012–2 and Programa de Apoio a Núcleos de Excelência (PRONEX)/FACEPE/CNPq, process number: APQ-0138–2.05/14. This study was also supported by Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)/Chamada Universal, grant number: 481755/2013–6 awarded to Ariadna Valentina Lopes (AVL); Bolsa de Produtividade em Pesquisa (PQ)/CNPq, grant number: 309505/20186 awarded to AVL; Fundação de Amparo à Ciência e Tecnologia do Estado de Pernambuco (FACEPE), grant number: BFP-0075–2.03/20 awarded to Jéssica Luiza S. Silva; Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES), grant number: APQ-0789–2.05/16 and FACEPE, grant number: BCT-0208–2.05/17 awarded to Oswaldo Cruz-Neto; Organization of American States (OAS) and CAPES, grant number: 001 awarded to Diego Centeno-Alvarado (MSc Fellowship).
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Conceptualization: DC-A, JLSS, OC-N, AVL; data curation, formal analysis, and investigation: DC-A; methodology and writing: DC-A, JLSS, OC-N, AVL; funding acquisition, project administration, supervision, and validation: AVL.
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Centeno-Alvarado, D., Silva, J.L.S., Cruz-Neto, O. et al. Climate change may reduce suitable habitats for Tacinga palmadora (Cactaceae) in the Caatinga dry forest: species distribution modeling considering plant-pollinator interactions. Reg Environ Change 22, 16 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-021-01873-0
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-021-01873-0